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HURRICANE ISABEL SLIGHT THREAT
TO EXTREME N.E. ISLANDS OF CARIBBEAN BUT WILL LIKELY PASS TO THE NORTH.
MY CURRENT THINKING IN ISABEL
IS AS FOLLOWS: ISABEL HAS A VERY
LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A VERY STRONG
HURRICANE IN THE DAYS AHEAD. ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR I SEE IS THE UPWELLED WATER LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF FABIAN AS
TPC AS SUGGESTED IN 11AM RELEASE. TRACK
OF ISABEL WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF FABIAN (GIVE OR TAKE 50-100 NMI NORTH OR
SOUTH) WHICH MEANS ISABEL WILL BE PASSING OVER THE WELL CHURNED UP WATERS IN THE
FAKE OF FABIAN AND DUE TO UPWELLING WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLED.
OTHERWISE OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND SHEAR IS LOW SO SLOW/STEADY DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. ONCE TO THE AREA OF
22N/65W I BELIEVE ISABEL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REALLY START CRANKING...THAT
6.5-7.5 DAYS AWAY SO WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT.
IN THE MEANTIME I DON'T SEE MORE THAN A HIGH CAT 2 TO PERHAPS LOW CAT 3
IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.....JUST SLOW/STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS ISABEL DRAWS ON THE
LARGE AND HEALTHY CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.
TRACK:
AS INDICATED ABOVE EXPECT A TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF FABIAN....BY DAY
4-5 HOWEVER THAT IS WHERE THE SIMILARITY WILL END.
ISABEL MAY WELL BE DESTINED FOR
RECURVATURE BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS CUT AND DRY AS THE TURN WITH FABIAN WAS....AND
ISABEL IS AT THE VERY LEAST DESTINED FOR RECUTVATURE FURTHER WEST....AT WORST A
POSSIBLE U.S. LANDFALL.
AFTER A W.N.W...OR PERHAPS EVEN
N.W. MOTION FOR A TIME OVER THE NEXT 72-84 HOURS ISABEL...IN MY OPINION...IS
LIKELY TO TURN BACK TO A MORE WEST TRACK AS SHE MISSES HER CHANCE TO BE CARRIED
OUT TO SEA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND FORCES HER
MORE TO THE WEST. THINK THE CURRENT
TPC 120 HR PSN LOOKS REASONABLE AND I THINK WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE IT WILL
VERIFY TO WITHIN 100 MILES OR LESS.
BEYOND 120 HRS....WOULD EXPECT
A POSITION NEAR 22.5N/70.0W A WEEK FROM TODAY (SUNDAY 9/14)
FROM THERE ALL ATTENTION WILL
FOCUS ON THE NEXT TROF FCST TO MORE INTO THE EASTERN U.S.....THIS TROF WILL NOT
BE LIKE THE ONES OF THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS AND IT WILL BE LIFTING OUT AS IT
COMES EAST.....THE QUESTION WILL BE DOES IT GRAB ISABEL AND PULL HER OUT TO SEA
BETWEEN HATTERAS AND BERMUDA OR IS SHE LEFT BEHIND AND THEN STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS IT ONCE AGAIN BUILDS TO HER NORTH.
MY BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS
THAT IT TRIES TO PULL ISABEL N.W. BUT NEVER FULLY DOES AND ISABEL IS THEN LEFT
BEHIND TO THREATEN SOME PORTION OF THE U.S. COAST.
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS WELL OVER
A WEEK AWAY AND THIS IS MY CURRENT THINKING AS OF NOW.
THERE SEEMS TO BE AN EVER
GROWING DESIRE BY PRIVATE SECTOR FCSTRS AND THE MEDIA TO FCST TROPICAL SYSTEMS
FURTHER AND FURTHER OUT INTO THE FUTURE....SO ABOVE ARE MY CURRENT THOUGHTS ON
HOW ISABEL MAY PLAY OUT.
IN SUMMARY.....I THINK SHE MAY
BECOME A VERY STRONG HURRICANE (STRONG CAT 4) AS SHE NEARS THE S.E. BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND THEN MAY RECURVE BETWEEN HATTERAS AND BERMUDA (CLOSER TO HATTERAS
THEN BERMUDA) OR MY COME FURTHER WEST TO THREATEN SOME PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST.
MORE IN THE DAYS AHEAD.