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HURRICANE
WATCHES POSTED - REFER TO OFFICIAL TPC STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW EVEN MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON AN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
LANDFALL.
WILL NOW SHIFT MY FCST TRACK SOUTH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TPC.
EXPECT LANDFALL JUST SW OF CAPE HATTERAS ON A NNW HEADING. ISABEL
WILL MAKE LANDFALL THEN CONTINUE INLAND ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA.
WOULD EXPECT LANDFALL INTENSITY BETWEEN 95-110 MPH.
THE BEACHES OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC AND THE BEACHES OF VIRGINIA/SOUTHERN
DEL-MAR-VA WILL TAKE A WIND AND WAVE LASHING WITH AT LEAST GUSTS OVER 100 MPH.
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 5-7" OVER SOME ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL CAUSE
MODERATE INLAND FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA NW INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SWEEP A GOOD DISTANCE INLAND NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK.
LOOK FOR A LOT OF TREE / POWERLINE DAMAGE AGAIN NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TRACK.... GALES COULD EXTEND OUTWARD 200+ MILES TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK...AND ISABEL COULD PRODUCE GALES ALL THE WAY TO CANADA.
GOING TO BE A NASTY GO OF IT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.... THEN ISABEL WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO CANADA.
ISABEL WILL BE A MEMORABLE STORM...BUT NOT THE STORM OF THE AGE....THE OUTER
BANKS HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN WORSE.
I THINK THE REAL DAMAGING EFFECTS WILL COME AS THE HIGH WINDS SWEEP INTO
EASTERN VIRGINIA CAUSING EXTENSIVE INLAND TREE / POWERLINE DAMAGE.