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MORNING VISIBLE/IR SAT PICS SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED CAT 4 HURRICANE WITH A SOLID CDO WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND ISABEL SHOULD REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTENSITY IS LIKELY PEAKING THIS MORNING AS HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY DO NOT SUSTAIN 135 MPH+ INTENSITY FOR MORE THAN 24-36 HOURS.....SO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS....OVERALL WOULD EXPECT ISABEL TO MAINTAIN MAJOR (111 MPH+) HURRICANE STATUS NEXT 5 DAYS. WHILE ISABEL MAY FALL OFF INTENSITY WISE OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL NOT CRANK AGAIN ONCE FURTHER WEST. I STILL BELIEVE ONCE PAST 65 WEST GIVEN THE WARM SST'S AND POTENTIALLY VERY FAVORABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN ISABEL COULD REGAIN INTENSE CAT 4 STATUS AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. INTENSITY FCSTING IS AN EDUCATED CRAP SHOOT, BUT I THINK THE POTENTIAL IS THERE DOWN THE ROAD FOR ISABEL TO REALLY CRANK.
TRACK: I AM RIDING THE EC WITH A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT...THE GFS IS TRASH AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLIP SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN. THE UKMET...WHILE POSSIBLE WITH ITS OUT TO SEA TURN I THINK WILL EVENTUALLY COME BACK WEST...AND EVEN IF ISABEL DOES MISS THE U.S. COAST IT WILL BE
A LOT CLOSER THAN THE UKMET THINKS. THE NOGAPS IS SLOWER BUT SIMILAR TO THE EC. THE TPC 5AM RELEASE WITH ITS 120 HR PSN WILL LIKELY BE A TAD TO SLOW AND LITTLE TO FAR NORTH. BOTTOM LINE....I'M STICKING WITH MY SUNDAY POSITION NEAR 22.5N/70.0W....I MAY BE A LITTLE FAST WITH THAT AND IT MIGHT BE MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT MY SAME GENERAL THINKING FROM THIS PAST SUNDAY POST REMAINS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW WEST OF ISABEL BACKING N.W. TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND CLEARLY SHOWS THE RIDGE BUILDING WEST TO HER NORTH. WOULD EXPECT ISABEL TO START MOVING MORE WESTWARD LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. ISABEL WILL LIKELY PASS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.....CAN'T BY ANY MEANS SOUND AN ALL CLEAR FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS YET AS IT WILL DEPEND HOW MUCH IF ANY TURN ISABEL MAKES TO THE SOUTH OF WEST IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MY THINKING TODAY....AS YESTERDAY...IS THAT IT WILL BE A VERY CLOSE CALL...WITH ISABEL MOVING ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF 20N AS IT PASSES THE ISLANDS. AT THE VERY LEAST NORTH FACING BEACHES WILL HAVE WAVE AND SURF ISSUES. IF YOU LIVE IN THE NORTHERN ISLANDS STAY TUNED.
IN THE LONGER RANGE....REALLY NO CHANGE IN MY THINKING SINCE SUNDAY....ISABEL REACHES THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST BAHAMA ISLANDS MONDAY....SLOWS SOME AS TROF PASSES BY TO THE NORTH AND THEN I THINK IS STEERED TOWARD THE S.E. U.S. COAST BY RIDGE BUILDING TO HER NORTH....KEY THEN BECOMES THE NEXT TROF TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN U.S.....DOES IT PICKUP ISABEL AND TAKE HER ON A CURVING PATH UP ALONG OR OFF THE EAST COAST...OR IS IT NOT QUICK ENOUGH AND ALLOWS ISABEL TO STRIKE FLORIDA BEFORE THEN TURNING NORTHEAST.
THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR JUST A EAST COAST SIDESWIPE HERE...BUT THAT IS NOT THE WAY I AM LEANING AT THE MOMENT. I THINK SOME PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH ISABEL.
STAY TUNED.