This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information. Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.
SOME
COMMENTS ON ISABEL.
BASICALLY
MY THOUGHTS FROM LAST SUNDAY ARE MORE OR LESS RIGHT ON TRACK.
IT IS TRUE THE INTENSITY OF ISABEL HAS BEEN SURPRISING.
I REALLY
DID NOT EXPECT THIS SORT OF INTENSIFICATION SO EARLY IN THE LIFE CYCLE OF
ISABEL. THE "COOL" WATER
WAKE FROM FABIAN HAD NO IMPACT ON
ISABEL
AT ALL. IT SEEMS THAT WITH WATER
TEMPS STILL IN THE 80-82F RANGE THE LARGE AND WELL DEVELOPED MID/LEVEL LOW AHEAD
OF ISABEL THAT
HAS BEEN
MOVING WEST/OR WEST-NORTHWEST IN TANDEM WITH ISABEL HAS PROVIDED SUPERIOR
CONDITIONS FOR HER TO VENTILATE AND GROW.
LOOKING
AT LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES VIS/IR ISABEL IS STILL A CLASSIC HURRICANE WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW AND A LARGE COLD CDO. WITH
A 30-35 NMI WIDE EYE ISABEL SHOULD MAINTAIN 140-160 MPH INTENSITY ANOTHER 24
HOURS AS THAT EYEWALL CONTRACTS BACK DOWN AGAIN.
ISABEL HAS BEEN INTENSE FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME AND YOU HAVE TO WONDER
HOW LONG WILL THIS LAST? WELL,
INTENSITY FCSTING IS BY FAR NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE...MY CURRENT THINKING IS FOR
140-160 MPH FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL FALLING BACK SO THAT BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE A 120-135 MPH HURRICANE EAST OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN
NOW....BUT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT WITH VERY WARM WATER VICINITY OF THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS ISABEL COULD INTENSIFY ONCE AGAIN BEYOND 120 HOURS.....BUT AT
THIS POINT FCST UPPER CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK NEAR AS FAVORABLE AS THEY DID A FEW
DAYS AGO FOR ISABEL TO
BECOME A
STRONG CAT 4 AGAIN ONCE SHE LOSES THAT INTENSITY. ONCE AGAIN INTENSITY FCSTING IS AN EDUCATED CRAP SHOOT....NO
MAN NOR INTENSITY GUIDANCE SCHEME SAW ISABEL REACHING CAT 5 (160 MPH) 2 DAYS
BEFORE IT HAPPENED. I WILL
POINT OUT THAT WHILE RIGHT NOW I DO NOT EXPECT ISABEL TO GET BACK TO 160
MPH....THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SHE COULD GET BACK TO MID/STRONG CAT 4 STATUS FOR
A TIME AFTER LOSING SOME INTENSITY BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
FIRST RECON WILL BE ARRIVING IN ISABEL SHORTLY AND I SUSPECT THEY WILL
FIND A HURRICANE ABOUT AS STRONG AS SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST...PRESSURE 925
MBS +/- 5 EITHER WAY AND WINDS 155 +/- 10 MPH EITHER WAY.
TRACK....AGAIN
NOT ALOT OF CHANGE TO MY THINKING SINCE MY FIRST POST ON SUNDAY.
ISABEL IS ABOUT 1.5-2 DEGREES FURTHER NORTH THAN WHERE I THOUGHT SHE
WOULD BE AT THIS TIME...THIS IS MAINLY BECAUSE HER W.N.W./NW FOR A TIME MOTION
FROM THE WEEKEND AND EARLY THIS WEEK PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN I EXPECTED.
THIS ALLOWED HER TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE AND AS SUCH IS PASSING NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS AT 21.6N INSTEAD OF THE 19.7/20.3N I WAS EXPECTING.
SO, NOT QUITE THE HOLD YOUR BREATH MISS I WAS EXPECTING FOR THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS BUT 125-175 MILES MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE IN A CASE LIKE THIS.
IN FACT ISABEL HAS DIPPED EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST SINCE THE LAST
TPC ADVISORY...LIKELY ONLY A WOBBLE BUT AN INDICATION THAT THE
STEERING
RIDGE TO HER NORTH IS STRONG.
NOT
GOING TO GET INTO A MODEL DISCUSSION HERE SINCE OTHER SITES DO AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AVAIL FOR ALL TO SEE ON THE NET.
HERE IS
MY CURRENT THINKING ON THE EXTENDED RANGE OUTLOOK OF ISABEL.
MY SUNDAY/MONDAY FCST PSN FROM LAST SUNDAY WILL BE OFF BY NO MORE THAN
100 MILES...WHICH IF CORRECT IS NOT TO SHABBY...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW IT
ACTUALLY VERIFIES. ORIG FCST FOR
LATER SUNDAY / EARLY MONDAY WAS FOR 22.5N/70.0W....WILL NOW ADJUST THAT TO
24N/70W OR ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH. I
THINK TPC IS STARTING THE BEND MORE WNW A LITTLE TO SOON....ISABEL IS LARGE AND
STRONG AND WELL EMBEDDED IN EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...AND WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE ONLY TO ERODE SLIGHTLY I WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER 24 HOURS
OF SOLID WEST (270-275) MOTION. AFTER
THIS IS WHERE THE FUN AND GAMES BEGIN. AGAIN
GOING BACK TO FIRST POST FROM LAST SUNDAY...TROF DIGGING INTO THE EAST THIS
WEEKEND WILL DIG IN AND QUICKLY LIFT OUT AND ALLOW RIDGE TO BUILD AGAIN TO NORTH
OF ISABEL AND THIS WILL BE HER STEERING UNTIL NEXT TROF NEARS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.
MOST GUIDANCE BUILDS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S.E. CANADA/NW ATLANTIC
MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE BUILDS IT STRONGLY....WITH EACH
PASSING DAY IT IS LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT ISABEL WILL MISS A LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE ON THE U.S. EAST COAST AS SHE WILL BE FORCED TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY
BUILDING HEIGHTS/PRESSURES
TO HER
NORTH. THIS IS RATHER UNUSUAL FOR A
LANDFALLING EAST COAST HURRICANE BUT IT DOES HAPPEN....HUGO/HAZEL/THE NORFOLK VA
1933 CAT 3 STORM USUALLY A TROF MOVING EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST IN THE *MAIN*
STEERING....IN THIS CASE THAT MAY BE SECONDARY STEERING...BUT I DIGRESS.
IT IS MY
CURRENT OPINION THE THE THREAT TO FL AND GA IS LESSENING BY THE DAY FOR A
LANDFALL....WITH ANY LUCK I'LL BE ABLE TO SOUND AN ALL CLEAR FOR THAT AREA
BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...CAN'T DO IT YET SO YOU FOLKS STAY TUNED.
MY MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS IT HAS BEEN LAST 2 DAYS NOW IS FOR THE AREA FROM
CHARLESTON, SC TO THE CAPE HATTERS FOR A POTENTIAL LANDFALL POINT.
THIS IS A WIDE AREA I KNOW, BUT IT IS THE ZONE I AM TARGETING RIGHT NOW.
NEEDLESS TO SAY IF IT COMES IN NEAR HATTERAS THE FOLKS IN CHARLESTON WILL
HAVE MISSED A DIRECT HIT AND THE SAME GOES IF IT COMES IN NEAR CHARLESTON THE
FOLKS IN HATTERAS WILL HAVE GOTTEN OFF EASY.
SO, IT IS A WIDE SWATH AND THAT ENTIRE AREA IS NOT GOING TO BE SUBJECT TO
A LANDFALLING HURRICANE. MY
THURSDAY MORNING 9/18)
FCST
PSN *AT THIS POINT IN TIME * WOULD BE NEAR 30N/78W...WITH THE CENTER ON A NW OR
NNW HEADING AT THAT TIME. I BELIEVE
IF THIS DOES INDEED MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN CHS AND HAT WILL WILL DO SO ON A NW OR
NNW HEADING AND WILL NOT BE YOUR TYPICAL RECURVING ATLANTIC HURRICANE TRACK.
HAVING
SAID ALL THIS I MUST POINT OUT A COUPLE OF THINGS....1) THIS WILL NOT....REPEAT
WILL NOT BE SLAMMING INTO THE U.S. COAST AT A CAT 5 160 MPH HURRICANE AND THE
MEDIA HAD BETTER START SAYING THAT....SOME OF THE PRETTY FACES WITH THE WELL
GROOMED HAIR ARE ALREADY LEADING PEOPLE TO THINK THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST
DISASTER SINCE ANDREW.....COULD IT BE BAD? YES, COULD IT BE VERY BAD, YES....BUT
IT WILL NOT BE A CAT 5 AT LANDFALL. COULD
IT BE A CAT 3? YES....A LOW CAT 4? JUST MAYBE.
2) THE KEY TO U.S. LANDFALL AND WHERE WILL DEPEND ON WHEN A W.N.W THEN NW
TRACK STARTS...THE FURTHER WEST ISABEL GETS AT LOWER LATITUDE THE
HIGHER
THE RISK IN THE CHARLESTON AREA....IF IT STARTS A WNW/NW MOTION SOONER THEN
FURTHER NORTH IS IN MORE TROUBLE.
I AM
FULLY AWARE THAT SOME GUIDANCE DRIVES A STRONG CAT 2 HURRICANE INTO THE VIRGINIA
TIDEWATER/DEL-MAR-VA REGION.....WHILE THIS IS ON THE TABLE AS A POSSIBILITY I
CONSIDER IT A LOW POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR IT COULD BE HISTORICAL IN TERMS OF SURGE
AND TIDAL FLOODING. SUCH A TRACK WOULD PILE WATER ON A S.E. FLOW INTO THAT AREA
DAYS AHEAD OF ANY LANDFALL....IN ADDITION TIDES NEXT WEEK WILL BE RUNNING HIGHER
THAN NORMAL
TO BEGIN
WITH.
ANYWAY,
LOTS TO LOOK AND CONSIDER WITH ISABEL....IN SUMMARY....I THINK FL/GA ARE LOOKING
BETTER WITH TIME...NO ALL CLEAR BUT LESS THREAT I THINK. THE AREA ESPECIALLY
FROM CHS TO HAT SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY...LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH ALSO NEED TO
PAY ATTENTION. AGAIN, THIS WILL NOT
BE MAKING U.S. LANDFALL AT 160 MPH - CAT 5 STATUS....THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT DOES
NOT HAVE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE ALOT OF DAMAGE FROM WIND/SURGE.
NO
MATTER WHAT HAPPENS WAVES AND SURF WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE S.E. COAST FROM
FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINA BEACHES LATER THIS WEEKEND.
THATS ALL FOR NOW. SORRY FOR ANY SPELLING/GRAMMER ERRORS BUT LOTS GOING ON HERE.