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HURRICANE ISABEL - 9:30 A.M. - SATURDAY - 9/13/03

 FLORIDA AND GEORGIA….90% CONFIDENCE YOU WILL NOT EXPERIENCE LANDFALL FROM ISABEL.

MORNING SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ISABEL STILL SHOWS A STRONG HURRICANE.  FOR A WHILE LATE LAST NIGHT SHE WAS LOOKING A LITTLE "RAGGED"…RAGGED COMPARED TO WHAT SHE WAS.  I THINK OVERNIGHT PRESSURE MAY HAVE COME UP TO THE HIGH 930'S/940 MBS….OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS SHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BETTER OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADS, A COLDER MORE SYMMETRIC CDO AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS.  AS SUCH IT LOOKS TO ME LIKE ISABEL IS IN THE 140-150 MPH WIND RANGE…OR HIGH END CAT 4 AT THIS TIME.  HER MOVEMENT OVER NIGHT HAS BEEN WEST (275/280) AND THIS MOTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS…SO GENERALLY A (280) SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST MOTION INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

 INTENSITY:  I THINK AS FAR AS CAT 5 GOES ISABEL HAS PEAKED AND WILL NOT BE RETURNING TO CAT 5 STATUS….THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH CAT 4 TO LOW CAT 5 IS NOT THAT GREAT…SHE IS STILL A STRONG/DANGEROUS HURRICANE.  WOULD EXPECT A GENERAL 130-140 MPH HURRICANE THROUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.  THEN IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT ISABEL COULD INTENSIFY AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS SHE MOVES  UP PARALLEL TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS….AT THAT POINT SHE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE WARMEST WATERS SHE HAS TRAVERSED ON HER JOURNEY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC…HOWEVER MOST OF THE FCST MODELS ARE FCSTING 15-30 KTS OF SHEAR TO BE AFFECTING HER AS SHE APPROACHES AND GETS INTO THIS AREA.

IF THE SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE ISABEL COULD POP BACK UP TO 140-155 MPH HURRICANE FOR A TIME BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR KICKS IN LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY….IF THE SHEAR IS ON THE HIGH SIDE (30 KTS) THEN I THINK ISABEL COULD FALL BACK INTO THE 115-125 MPH RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MY CURRENT THINKING FAVORS THE FOLLOWING…130-140 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING…THEN AT HOLDING THAT INTENSITY RANGE MONDAY/TUESDAY.

INTENSITY AFTER TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SHEAR IS GENERATED BY S/W IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH ASD ITS POSITION RELATIVE TO ISABEL…MY THINKING NOW IS FOR A GENERAL 115-125 MPH HURRICANE LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERAL *SLOW* WEAKENING BEYOND THAT.

TRACK:  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING SINCE MY LAST POST.  I THINK THE 5AM TPC TRACK COULD USE A LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT BY 50-75 MILES AND MY TRACK FROM NOON YESTERDAY COULD USE AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT BY THE SAME DISTANCE…THAT WOULD MAKE MY NEW THURSDAY (9/18) POSITION NEAR 32N/76W…ON A NW OR NNW HEADING.

AT THIS POINT WITH 90% CONFIDENCE I WILL SOUND AN ALL CLEAR FOR THE FLORIDA AND GA COASTS TO BE SPARED FROM LANDFALL…SURF AND WAVE ACTION WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES….BE ADVISED OF THAT…..THE THREAT TO SOUTH CAROLINA APPEARS TO BE LESSENING BUT I WILL STILL KEEP MY TARGET AREA SET AT CHS TO HAT FOR POTENTIAL LANDFALL….LEANING MORE HEAVILY TO THE NC PORTION OF THAT SWATH.  WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 24-48 HOURS BEFORE SC CAN BE TAKEN OFF TABLE AS POTENTIAL LANDFALL SITE…BUT LOOKING BETTER TODAY FOR YOU FOLKS THERE.   USUALLY I WOULD NOT SOUND AN ALL CLEAR UNTIL ANY STORM IS TO A GIVEN LATITUDE OR AT LEAST CLOSER THAN ISABEL BUT AT THIS POINT I JUST CAN'T SEE ANYTHING THAT WOULD NOT ALLOW ISABEL TO TURN MORE WNW - THEN NW BY MONDAY / TUESDAY BEFORE SHE THEN COULD TURN BACK MORE WNW TO AFFECT THE AREAS NORTH OF FL/GA

LATER IN THE WEEK.

AS FOR INTENSITY AT ANY POTENTIAL U.S. LANDFALL….IF SHE COMES IN ALONG THE SC/NC COAST….I'M THINKING AS HIGH AS CAT 3….IF SHE COMES IN ALONG THE VA COAST….POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS A LOW CAT 2….WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG SHE TAKES TO COME IN…ANYTHING NORTH OF MARYLAND….CAT 1.

NOW AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LANDFALL NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA….LR MODELS ARE GETTING RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE VA TIDEWATER/DEL-MAR-VA REGION.  AS I SAID YESTERDAY THIS IS POSSIBLE BUT I CONSIDER IT A LOW POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.  I WILL ADDRESS THIS FURTHER IN FUTURE POSTS BUT RIGHT NOW I AM FAVORING A NC LANDFALL THEN A NW THEN NNW THEN N TRACK FROM THERE.

THAT SLAMS THE LID ON THIS UPDATE.

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