This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information.  Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.

HURRICANE ISABEL - 6:30 P.M. - SATURDAY - 9/13/03

SHORT UPDATE ON ISABEL BASED ON CURRENT GOINGS ON AND 12z/18z MODEL DATA.

1) ISABEL HAS POPPED BACK UP TO CAT 5 STATUS...THIS COULD LAST AS LITTLE AS 12 HOURS OR AS LONG AS ANOTHER 24 HRS.  REALLY HAS NO EFFECT
ON LONGER TERM INTENSITY.  EVERYONE SHOULD BE OVERJOYED THAT THIS IS NO WHERE NEAR THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST AT THIS INTENSITY.
CURRENT THINKING:  LOOK FOR A 140-160 MPH HURRICANE FOR NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THEN A LEVELING OFF IN THE 125-135 MPH RANGE BEFORE A MORE STEADY WEAKENING BEYOND LATER TUESDAY AS SHEAR SHOULD.....WE ALL BETTER HOPE IT DOES....CAUSE A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING.

2) I THINK THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS THE CURRENT FORWARD MOTION.....TPC HAS IT AT 285...I SUSPECT IT IS MORE LIKE 290....A FEW MORE HOURS WILL CONFIRM THAT.  THIS TURN OR BENDING MORE TO THE NORTH....ASSUMING IT IS FOR REAL...AND I THINK IT IS TAKES FL, GA AND LIKELY SC OUT OF THE LANDFALL GAME....100% CERTAIN ON FL AND GA AND 75% CERTAIN FOR SC...MORE ON SC TOMORROW.    BUT NOW INCREASES THE THREAT FURTHER NORTH, I'M STILL FOCUSING ON NC FOR A LANDFALL.  ...BUT I AM GETTING MORE CONCERNED FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN HATTERAS AND THE DEL-MAR-VA.  THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF MORE UPPER AIR DATA FROM THE NOAA JETS THAT HAVE BEEN FLYING HIGH ALTITUDE MISSIONS IN AND AROUND ISABEL TODAY.  THIS SHOULD HELP GREATLY AS THIS DATA GETS INTO THE MODELS AND PROVIDES INSIGHT INTO HOW THE DATA VOID ENVIRONMENT AROUND ISABEL IS DEVELOPING. SO FOR NOW....I AM STILL
FOCUSING ON THE NC COAST FOR HIGHEST THREAT OF LANDFALL AT THIS TIME.  THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA IS CLUSTERING RATHER TIGHTLY (ESPECIALLY FOR 5-7 DAYS OUT) ON THE HATTERAS TO DELAWARE AREA AS LANDFALL TARGET.

I SEE ALMOST NO WAY OUT THAT THE CENTER OF ISABEL DOES NOT CROSS THE U.S. EAST COAST AT SOME LOCATION.....TO BE HONEST THE AREA FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO CAPE COD IS IN PLAY AT THIS POINT....MY THINKING IS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THAT AREA.  WAY TO EARLY TO START GETTING SPECIFIC AS TO WHAT MAY HAPPEN DAMAGE WISE.....BUT IF THIS DOES COME IN OVER S.E. VA FOR INSTANCE...THE AREA NEAR AND A GOOD DISTANCE NORTH OF THE CENTER
WILL BE EXPOSED TO A REAL SHORE FRONT LASHING AS S.E. WINDS WELL AHEAD OF ANY LANDFALL WILL PILE THE WATER TOWARD THE COAST FOR 36-48 HOURS
BEFORE THE CENTER APPROACHES.    THE FURTHER NORTH IT COMES IN THE WEAKER IT WILL BE...THAT IS **NOT** TO SAY IT WILL NOT CAUSE PROBLEMS...IT WILL. AND IF A WORSE CASE SCENARIO WERE TO DEVELOP THIS HAS THE *POTENTIAL* TO BE HISTORIC IS SCOPE....NOT GOING THERE YET.

IN SUMMARY...FL AND GA ARE CLEAR....SC THREAT IS GETTING LOWER AS TIME GOES BY AND NC REMAINS AT HIGHEST RISK RIGHT NOW...THE AREA FROM HATTERAS TO S.E. NEW ENGLAND NOW NEEDS TO PAY ATTENTION FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS.  THE POTENTIAL TIMEFRAME TO WATCH IS THURSDAY/FRIDAY OF THE COMING WEEK.

THATS ALL FOR NOW.

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