This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information. Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.
HURRICANE
ISABEL - 12:30 P.M. - SUNDAY - 9/14/03
NO
WAY OUT FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST....ISABEL IS COMING.
QUESTIONS
OF THE DAY: EXACTLY WHERE/WHO GETS
WHAT AND INTENSITY.
FL/GA/SC
ARE OUT OF THE WOODS...IT'S OVER FOR YOU.
CONCERN
IN NOW FOR EXTREME EASTERN NC NORTH TOWARD THE JERSEY COAST.
INTENSITY:
ISABEL IS BACK DOWN TO STRONG CAT 4 STATUS AND THIS TIME I CAN SAY WITH
CONFIDENCE I DO NOT EXPECT HER TO GET BACK TO CAT 5 STATUS.
WOULD EXPECT CAT 4 STATUS (131-155 MPH) THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN FALLING BACK TO CAT3 STATUS (111 TO 130 MPH) PRIOR TO U.S.
LANDFALL....DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN IT COMES IN IT COULD FALL BACK FURTHER
TO CAT 2 STATUS (96-110 MPH)....AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT AT A
*MINIMUM* A 100 MPH
HURRICANE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE EAST COAST BETWEEN HATTERAS AND LONG ISLAND, NY.
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 3 DAYS, BUT IS NOT FCST TO BE THAT
STRONG...WATER TEMPS ARE 80-82f RIGHT UP TO AROUND CAPE HATTERAS...THEN FALL
INTO THE MID 70'S EAST OF THE DEL-MAR-VA AND INTO THE UPPER 60'S EAST OF SNJ.
WITH ISABEL AT A QUICKENING FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD AND
ON A NNW HEADING IT WILL BE OVER WARM WATER ALMOST RIGHT UP UNTIL
LANDFALL....THUS THE POTENTIAL OF A CAT 3 HITTING VA/MD COAST IS
SOMEWHAT
HIGHER THAN USUAL. BOTTOM
LINE THIS HAS **POTENTIAL** TO BE HISTORICAL IN SCOPE FOR A PORTION OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
TRACK:
NOT GOING TO GET INTO MUCH DETAIL HERE.
THIS IS WHAT I'M THINKING AT THE CURRENT TIME.
THE 11AM SUNDAY TPC
TRACK I
THINK NEED TO BE NUDGED TO THE RIGHT. THUS...MY
FCST IS AS FOLLOWS: NOON THURSDAY-
50-75 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS....FROM THERE A TRACK NNW ACROSS VIRGINIA /
MARYLAND COAST TO A POSITION BETWEEN DOVER, DELAWARE AND
THIS IS
STILL 4 1/2 TO 5 DAYS AWAY AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS TRACK ARE LIKELY.
IN MY OPINION AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
TO THE
RIGHT AND NOT THE LEFT.....THUS NJ AND LONG ISLAND STAY TUNED.
WHILE
TRACK IS IMPORTANT SINCE THE WORST EFFECTS WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK....DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT
LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD WITH
ISABEL WILL BE EXPANDING AS IT COMES NORTH TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THERE
IS
LIKELY TO BE A WIDE SWATH OF GALES WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TRACK.
THIS
COULD BE A VERY DAMAGING EVENT FOR THE BEACHES OF VIRGINIA/MARYLAND/DELAWARE AND
NEW JERSEY. I THINK A FAIRLY
STAY TUNED.