This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information. Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.
ISABEL
STILL TAKING AIM ON MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
LATEST RECON AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS ONCE MIGHTY ISABEL IS FINALLY STARTING TO
WEAKEN.
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NC/VA/MD
COAST BEFORE TODAY IS OVER.
LATEST RECON AND SATELLITE DATA SUPPORTS THAT WHEN THE NEW TPC ADVISORY COMES
OUT AT 11:00 WINDS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED TO
130-135 MPH....LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW A MUCH LESS SYMMETRIC HURRICANE THEN
WE'VE BEEN LOOKING AT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS STARTING TO SPREAD N.W./S.E. SUGGESTING ISABEL IS
ABOUT TO START MAKING THE TURN MORE TO THE NW SHORTLY.
THE EYE IS STILL WELL DEFINED AND OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD, ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ON THE WESTERN SIDE. WOULD NOT EXPECT
ISABEL TO GET ANY STRONGER ANYMORE...BUT FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD BE
GRADUAL....THINKING ON THE ORDER OF 115-125 MPH BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW.
INTENSITY SHOULD THEN LEVEL OFF IN THE 95-115 MPH RANGE PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL.
ISABEL IS LARGE AND HER WIND FIELD WILL ONLY
EXPAND AS SHE REACHES THE EAST COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AT LEAST IN
GUSTS COULD REACH OUT 150 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER AS IT COMES ASHORE LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING.
TRACK: LITTLE CHANCE IN MY THINKING FROM YESTERDAY. I BELIEVE THE
CENTER WILL PASS A SHORT DISTANCE EAST OF HATTERAS THEN CROSS
OVER THE VA/MD COAST ON A NNW HEADING....MOVING ESSENTIALLY UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THIS TRACK IS ROUGHLY 1 DEGREE TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL TPC FCST.
ISABEL SHOULD CONTINUE NW OR NNW...PASSING ESSENTIALLY OVER DCA....THEN MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA NEAR OR A SHORT DISTANCE EAST OF HARRISBURG. HIGH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE A GOOD DISTANCE INLAND. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
3-5"/4-6" AS ISABEL WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY ALONG.
DEPENDING ON **EXACTLY** WHERE ISABEL COMES IN THE SURGE UP THE CHESAPEAKE
AND/OR DELAWARE BAY COULD BE MODERATE TO EXTREME...THE TIDEWATER OF VA IS ALSO
AT RISK OF AN EXTREME SURGE SHOULD THE CENTER COME IN OVER THEM OR JUST
SOUTH....THE SOUTHERN DEL-MAR-VA (VA/MD PIECE) IS ALSO IN LINE FOR A WIND
LASHING WITH S.E. WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 100 MPH.
ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM TRACK.
SO, WHILE THE SMALL FINER DETAILS NEED TO FIRMED UP...ISABEL IS A COMING.
NOT THE CAT 4-5 BEAST SHE WAS TO BE SURE....BUT EVEN A STRONG CAT 2 OR
LOW CAT 3 CAN DO A LOT OF WIND/WAVE AND SURF DAMAGE. I THINK THE POWER
OUTAGES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COULD BE HISTORICAL....
THE AREA FROM EASTERN VA....NORTHEAST INTO NJ AND NORTH INTO PA AND EVEN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE COULD ALL BE BLASTED BY GALES
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE. CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER COULD REACH INTO
THE MILLIONS AND IS THE HARDEST HIT SPOTS IT COULD TAKE 2 WEEKS+
TO RESTORE.
START PREPARATIONS TODAY.