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Subject: COMMENT ON ISABEL - 7:30 P.M. - MONDAY - 9/15/03
Date: 9/15/03 7:44 PM Eastern Daylight Time
From: SNONUT
AFTER SEEING THE 12Z AND 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE I AM FULLY AWARE THAT THE BULK OF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TRACK TO THE LEFT.
I HOWEVER AM NOT MOVING MY TRACK OF LAST 24-36 HOURS...PLS. REFERENCE PRIOR POSTS.
LOOKING AT LATEST WV CURRENT TROF APPROACHING THE EAST COAST THEN FCST TO LIFT OUT IS ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL...THIS WILL FORCE A MORE NW - THEN NNW MOTION FOR A TIME FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
THEN AS TROF LIFTS OUT AND RIDGE BUILDS BACK ISABEL WILL BEND MORE BACK TOWARD THE COAST ON A NW TRACK...IN THE GENERAL VICINITY
OF THE VA. CAPES OR SOUTHERN DEL-MAR-VA.
IN SHORT....NO CHANGES TO MY FCST.