This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information. Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.
T.S. BONNIE 9:30 P.M. - MONDAY - 8/9/04
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. #2 WERE RE-CLASSIFIED AS T.S. BONNIE THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF THIS HOUR T.S. BONNIE CONSISTS OF A SMALL, TIGHTLY WOUND SFC CIRCULATION WITH AN ASSOCIATED BALL OF FLUCUATING CONVECTION.
BONNIE HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TODAY TO THE SOUTH OF A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A SERIES OF UNSEASONABLLY STRONG S/W'S WILL DIG AN EVER DEEPENING TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 5-8 DAYS.
THESE S/W'S WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE WESTERN END OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOW BONNIE TO GRADUALLY SLOW AND TURN MORE N.W., THEN NORTH AND EVENTUALLY N.E.
AS LONG AS BONNIE REMAINS A WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE IT WILL RESPOND TO THIS CHANGING STEERING FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE BONNIE IS A VERY SMALL, TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM AND INTENSITY FCST. COULD BE A PROBLEM. FOR THE MOMENT I WILL ASSUME BONNIE WILL REMAIN A WELL STACKED SYSTEM AND RESPOND TO THE STEERING FLOW DESCRIBED ABOVE…..IF THAT ASSUMPTION IS CORRECT THEN A LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST BETWEEN MOBILE BAY AND ST. MARKS FLORIDA IS MY CURRENT FORECAST.
IF BONNIE WERE TO WEAKEN TO A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM THEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY….THIS IS NOT MY THINKING AS OF NOW.
INTENSITY….AS ALWAYS INTENSITY FCSTING IS A CRAP SHOOT. SHEAR IS LOW, WATERS OVER THE GULF ARE VERY WARM. I'D FEEL BETTER IF BONNIE HAD A LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE, BUT IT IS WHAT IT IS…..AS SUCH….WILL FCST. ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION AT THIS MOMENT WITH PERHAPS A MINIMAL HURRICANE BY LANDFALL. BONNIE WILL BE IN A POSITION TO BE WELL VENTILATED AS IT MAKES APPROACH OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS JUST OFF THE COAST. ….WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INTENSIFICATION AT OR JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ABOUT ALL OF THIS TOMORROW AS I SEE HOW BONNIE EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOLKS ON THE GULF COAST FROM NEW ORLEANS TO CEDAR KEY, FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.
ALSO, NOT GOING INTO THIS NOW….BUT….BONNIE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SERIOUS INLAND FLOODING IF IT EVOLVES AS FCST….OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AND UP THE COASTAL PLAIN TO NEW ENGLAND.
MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
T.D. #3:
T.D. #3 HAS A WELL DEVELOPED LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT CONVECTION IS VERY DISORGANIZED.
THINKING ON T.D. #3 IS FOR SLOW AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT..SHEAR IS LOW AND WATERS ARE WARM. WOULD EXPECT A TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA THEN EITHER OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA OR RIGHT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. I BELIEVE T.D. #3 HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN/S.E. GULF OF MEXICO.
DOWN THE ROAD…..THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS EYES FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.