This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information.  Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.

Hurricane Charley 9:30 P.M. - Thursday - 8/12/04

No real changes from prior posts….threat increasing for central west coast of Florida Charley is about 50 miles to the east of where I thought it would be from 24 hours ago. Intensity wise it is where I thought it would be….so we're pretty much on track.

With the actual position on the east shore of the Isle of Youth and a NNW motion will adjust my track pretty much right in line with official TPC track from 5PM…at this point my thinking is for a landfall between Spring Hill and Sarasota Friday evening.

From there expect a track to N.E. Florida, to near JAX…then NNE up the piedmont at an increasing forward speed.

Intensity….expect a leveling off in intensity next 6-8 hours as Charley tangles with Cuba….not much if any weakening…just a leveling off.

Then once free of Cuba in the S.E. Gulf Charley should intensify and at this point am thinking 110-120 mph at landfall on the coast…as indicated above.

Effects….Depending on EXACT TRACK and EXACT INTENSITY a tremendous surge of 10 feet plus is possible near and to the right of where the center crosses the coast…..a 10-12 foot surge into Tampa Bay would cause tremendous flooding and extensive damage.

Still to early to nail a landfall point…that will have to wait till tomorrow morning. Rainfall totals of 6-10" are likely along the path of Charley.

Tropical storm force winds with gusts to hurricane force will spread well inland along the track of Charley…at least into the Carolinas. Gusts to TS force could make it up to NYC and SNE.

Bottom line…..a major hurricane strike looms for the central west coast of Florida and all the baggage that goes along with it.

Please consult local NWS statements for more details. If ordered to leave low lying area and barrier islands…DO IT….this could be a life threatening situation if it plays out as forecast.

I know there posts are not of the long detailed versions as some sites….I'm just real short on time and just want to get my ideas out there and stick with basic accurate information of the non hype variety.