This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information. Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.
Hurricane Frances Wednesday - September 1, 2004 - 2:30 P.M.
FRANCES NEARING THE S.E. BAHAMAS
Please reference my post from last evening. There is little I feel needs to be updated and my thinking at this time is essentially unchanged from last night.
Frances is undergoing a concentric eye wall cycle….once that is completed, we should see some intensification later tonight or tomorrow. Still quite possible Frances reaches Cat 5 (155 mph+) sometime over the 24-36 hours. Latest 18Z SHIPS holds her between 140 and 145 mph for the next 60 hours then drops intensity to near 130 mph at time of landfall…..Not sure why the drop off with low shear, warm water and a very well established system. Intensity will likely be the result of eyewall cycles which are impossible to predict.
As I've said the intensity at landfall will be more a product of if Frances is pulsing up or down at the time.
In any event…a major Cat 3+ hurricane is likely at time of landfall.
Some of the guidance wants to slow Frances at time of landfall….not sure about that, will look at that for evening update.
Track wise….please reference Tuesday evening update…really no change to that thinking. Frances will pass about 40 miles east of Grand Turk later this afternoon and then continue as outlined in Tuesday evening update.
That track exact track is not etched in granite….there could be some wobbles left or right so it will be a while longer before an exact landfall spot and be nailed down.
Hurricane Watches will likely be hoisted for a portion of the east coast of Florida within the next 24 hours or so.
Preliminary preparations should be well underway if you live anywhere between Miami and Jacksonville.
More this evening about 9:30….