This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information.  Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.

Hurricane Frances Friday – August 27, 2004 – 8:30 A.M.


Latest morning IR/VIS satellite loops show Hurricane Frances has turned more to the NW….roughly on a 315 heading.  This was expected,  albeit a little earlier (by about 18 hours) than I was thinking.

As mentioned last evening it is key how much latitude Frances gains early on…..reason being she will turn back more to the w.n.w. or west in the longer ranges…where she is when that bend back to the left begins will dictate where the highest threat is for the s.e. coast.

Latest models are grouped into two camps…then southern most cluster through the northern islands, then over the Greater Antillies to the vicinity of the Keys….the northern most cluster roughly aimed at the northern Bahama Islands.

Little change to my earlier in track….that is a later Thursday or Friday position near 24N/72.5W….this is fairly close to the latest 6Z GFDL and a little south of the official TPC track.  Still believe the center of Frances will pass to the north of the islands by 100-125 miles.

Intensity:  No change to prior thinking.  Frances is a well developed hurricane…except for a leveling off in intensity in the 24-48 hr range it still appears she could then strengthen again between 72-96 hours and beyond over very warm water, low shear conditions.

If you live from the Keys to the Carolinas….stay tuned for future updates.

More this evening…..