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Hurricane Frances - Monday - August 30, 2004 - 7:00 A.M.
FRANCES CONTINUES WESTWARD
Just a short update….
Model data overnight heavily supports the thinking I outlined in my Sunday evening update. As such, confidence is increasing for a landfall along the SC or NC coast.
Still can't say yet how far east Frances will be offshore as she moves up parallel to the FL east coast….thinking remains however 100 or more miles. Stay tuned on this.
As for intensity….it appears to be that Frances may be getting ready to intensify some again. Still believe she will hit her peak as she nears the S.E. Bahama Islands later in the week….beyond that would expect the intensity to fall back and level off in the 100-120 mph range….if I had to make a landfall intensity projection I would be in the 100-120 mph range.
If I had to take a stab at a landfall swath…I'd say between Charleston, SC and Cape Lookout, NC.
In summary the threat for a direct landfall in Florida is lessening with time.
NEED TO MAKE A TYPO CORRECTION TO SUNDAY EVENING POST….SHOULD HAVE BEEN…."EAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND NEAR OR JUST EAST OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND…..NOT ANDROS ISLAND….SORRY.
More on all this about 9:30 tonight…………..