This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information.  Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.

Hurricane Frances Tuesday - August 31, 2004 - NOON


Please reference my post from last evening. There is little I feel needs to be updated and my thinking at this time is essentially unchanged from last night.

Frances is undergoing an intensification phase at this time and see no reason to back down on the fcst of a moderate to strong Cat 4 hurricane over the next 2-4 days. There will be some intensity fluctuations due to eye wall replacement cycles….but overall Frances will remain a large and dangerous hurricane.

Track: Little change in track thinking. I have a slightly wider turn than the official TPC fcst…and will leave everything as I laid it out last night.

I believe if future changes are needed to my track it will be adjusted to the right (or somewhat further off the FL east coast) for an eventual landfall threat to SC…and based on some preliminary data so far this morning I'm expecting to have to make an adjustment to the right later today or tonight.

Bottom line….if you live along the east coast from Miami north to Cape Lookout, NC you need to monitor the progress of Frances.

Where the turn to the NW or NNW takes place will be KEY to how Frances affects Florida….by no means is Florida off the hook…. a close sideswipe could cause a lot of damage.

Hurricane Watches will likely be posted for portions of the Florida east coast in about 36 hours.

More about 6:30 P.M.