This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information. Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.
Hurricane Ivan - Monday - September 6, 2004 - 9:30 PM
***IVAN CHARGING TOWARDS THE ISLANDS ***U.S. HIT SEEMS LIKELY…HOW STRONG? WHERE?***
CURRENTLY: Ivan is not quite as robust as 24 hours ago, but remains a well developed hurricane….especially for so far south in the Atlantic Basin.
Ivan is currently moving west (270-275 degrees) at 24 mph. Ivan has excellent outflow and nice banding features. The CDO is somewhat limited on the SW side but overall Ivan is a well developed hurricane.
INTENSITY: Honestly, while I think Ivan has the potential to get quite intense in the longer ranges I'm not overly impressed with the near term. Ivan is very far south and will only gain latitude slowly. Waters are quite warm, the circulation is well developed and shear is forecast to remain low..these are the positives for intensification.
The negatives are…it will be passing rather close to the northern coast of South America and this will greatly inhibit moist low level inflow as inflow will be directed from South America…and this will consist of drier continental air. The other negative is the very fast forward movement. In fact, I'm surprised Ivan is as well developed as it is considering it has been moving at 20 mph+ for the last few days….fast forward motion usually generates some degree of directional shear….but so far this has not been the case with Ivan. The fast forward motion combined with the low latitude make Ivan a very unusual hurricane. I'm looking for a 100-115 mph hurricane for the next 24-36 hours…then a steady trend or perhaps some weakening between 36-60 hours.
LONGER TERM INTENSITY: Once beyond 60-72 hours as Ivan clears the northern coast of South America and bends more w.n.w. into the open western Caribbean the possibility exists for some significant intensification. Upper winds are forecast to be favorable and Ivan will be moving over water with a high oceanic heat content.
If Ivan is to reach Cat 4 or Cat 5 status it will be in the longer ranges over the western Caribbean. This assumes my track thinking below is correct and Ivan stays clear of the effects of the Greater Antilles.
Track: Let me be clear here…..I DO NOT SEE IVAN AS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO FLORIDA.
Expect Ivan to enter the Caribbean SOUTH of Barbados and continue west (270-275) or slightly north of due west until about 70W.
Once to the vicinity 70W, I'm looking for a more W.N.W. track (290-305 degrees)
I am currently forecasting Ivan to pass over or SOUTH of Jamaica, Friday morning or afternoon. Once past Jamaica expect a path into or toward the Yucatan Channel…then into the Gulf.
Once into the southern Gulf it will be a matter of timing and placement of a trof pressing east from the western U.S. and how strong the western edge of the sub-tropical ridge is.
Right now I would suggest residents from the TX/LA border east to the west coast of Florida (it pains me to say that) pay close attention to future updates on Ivan.
If my track thinking is correct the potential exists for a very strong hurricane to be located in the Gulf by this weekend.
My track is south of the 5 P.M. official track and I believe they will be making adjustments to the left in future advisories.
THIS INFORMATION IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION.
Please refer to official statements from TPC and local weather services offices for official information. Please obey all evacuation orders as issued by local emergency service offices.