This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information. Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.
Hurricane Ivan -Tuesday - September 14, 2004 - 3:00 PM
***IVAN HEADING FOR THE GULF COAST***
***HURRICANE WARNINGS TO BE HOISTED AT 5:00 P.M.***
CURRENTLY: As expected Ivan has fallen back from the lofty intensity levels of late yesterday afternoon and last evening. Pressure has risen about 21 mbs over the last 12-18 hours and winds have fallen back to Cat 4 intensity 140 mph. Nothing to sneeze at.
Ivan is moving N.N.W about 10 mph and this general motion with a gradual more Northward turn expected beyond 36-40 hours.
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST: I have absolutely no changes from last post issued at 9:00 Monday evening. Please refer to that post.
There is one possibility I'm looking at in terms of a landfall issue. The steering for Ivan will become quite weak as he nears the coast and will continue weak once inland.
It is possible that once Ivan nears the coast, since steering is forecast to be so weak the effects of friction with land could cause an eastward drift along the coast for a time before the center actually comes inland. If that were to verify the coast of eastern MS and AL could be raked for several hours with hurricane force winds, battering waves and storm surge.
Will look at that more this evening and tomorrow. Will also try and narrow the landfall swath this evening as well.
Please keep in mind Ivan has a very large wind field…sustained winds of 75 mph extend out almost 90 miles and Tropical Storm force winds something near 175 miles. Therefore, even through Ivan may not make landfall at your location the effects along the coast will be widespread.
Expect only minor changes in intensity (downward) over the next 18-24 hours, more fluctuations really…then once past 24 hours perhaps an additional falling off.
I am still forecasting Ivan to come in near 125 mph (+/- 10 mph) and this is very capable of producing a significant surge (15') and tremendous wind damage…both at the coast and inland as Ivan will be a slow mover.
Other concern is Ivans passage in relation to Mobile Bay. Given the right set of circumstances the surge potential is VERY significant right up the bay….will address this possibility later.
If you are asked to evacuate….PLEASE leave.
Otherwise, there really is nothing I can add here that wasn't said last night.
THIS INFORMATION IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION.
Please refer to official statements from TPC and local weather services offices for official information. Please obey all evacuation orders as issued by local emergency service offices.