This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information. Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.
Hurricane Ivan -Wednesday - September 15, 2004 - 3:00 PM
***MOBILE TO TAKE A HARD HIT***
IVAN COMING INTO THE HOME STRETCH FOR GULF LANDFALL
**VERY SERIOUS INLAND FLOODING SCENARIO SETTING UP**
CURRENTLY: Ivan on track with my prior updates. Will narrow landfall location, intensity and timing with this update.
Weather is going down hill over the hurricane warning area at this hour and conditions will steadily worsen as we head through the late afternoon and evening. All preparations to protect life and property should rushed to completion.
Ivan is now on New Orleans radar and is heading just a tad west of due north at about 13 mph….expect this motion at 13-16 mph to continue up until landfall. This forward speed should ensure Ivan continues right inland and does not linger along the coast.
Will make final landfall forecast as follows:
Landfall between around 3:00 A.M. Thursday morning along the coast between MS and AL….with the center coming in over eastern Jackson County, MS and western Mobile County, AL.
Unfortunately this is going be the worst case scenario for a Mobile Bay surge. Expect water to pile into Mobile Bay well ahead of landfall then a surge on top of all that water of up to 15'…then some wave action on top of that as winds of 100 mph+ continue to pile water up the bay.
Locations on the north end of the bay and up along the Mobile River will likely see severe storm surge flooding.
This is not going to be a pretty site.
Even though the pressure has come up in Ivan since yesterday the latest satellite pictures show a healthy hurricane in no hurry to weaken further…if anything it is undergoing a bit of an in intensification at this hour. Latest rapid scan high resolution satellite pictures show the eye is clearing out and contracting….not a good sign with landfall now in the vicinity of 12 hours away.
Expect a 130-140 mph hurricane at landfall…with higher gusts especially over the barrier islands…..some of which to the right of landfall could see almost total over wash….Dauphin Island will take a very severe hit.
Ivan has a very large wind field and the effects will be wide reaching along the coast to the left and right of where the center comes in. There is really nothing else I can add at this point that I've not already said over the last few days.
Please reference my Tuesday evening (9:30) update for additional information on storm effects.
The threat for near SEVERE, POSSIBLE HISTORIC flooding exists over western NC and western Va. This area received 9-12" rain with Frances and as Ivan slows and dissipates in place over eastern KY/TN and western NC/VA another 9-12" of rain with isolated 15"+ totals possible in favored upslope areas. This on top of the saturated ground could cause very severe and record breaking flooding.
PLEASE pay attention to local NWS statements in your area over the next 48-72 hours regarding the expected flash flooding.
I kid you not….this has potential to be a horrible situation in the above outlined areas.
Will address this a bit further in my evening update about 9:30.
THIS INFORMATION IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION.
Please refer to official statements from TPC and local weather services offices for official information. Please obey all evacuation orders as issued by local emergency service offices.