This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information. Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.
Hurricane Ivan - Monday - September 13, 2004 - 3:00 PM
***IVAN TO ENTER GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 8 HOURS***
*RESIDENTS FROM BILOXI MS EAST TO FT. WALTON BEACH FLORIDA SHOULD BEGIN PRELIMINARY PREPARATIONS*
CURRENTLY: Just a short update now to update landfall swath. Complete update by 9:30 this evening.
Cat 5 Ivan to enter the Gulf of Mexico within about 8 hours.
Ivan has made a definitive turn to the N.W. (315 degrees) with a forward motion of about 8-10 mph. This motion with a GRADUAL bend more to the NNW then North is expected for the next 48-72 hours or up until time of landfall on the gulf coast.
Ivan is currently in an intensification mode as evidenced by recon and satellite data….max sustained could pop up to 165-170 mph sometime over the next 6-12 hours.
Beyond 12-24 hours expect GRADUALLY increasing shear to start knocking back the intensity.
Still projecting 110-130 mph at time of landfall….no change since last update.
Have made one final nudge to the left for a landfall swath.
Will now make what I believe to be a final call on landfall swath….from Biloxi, MS - east to Ft. Walton Beach, Fl…a swath of about 200 miles.
I hope to be able to narrow that further by tomorrow afternoon.
Residents say 50 miles west of Biloxi and 50 miles east of Ft. Walton Beach should continue to monitor closely just in case some adjustment left or right needs to be made.
Locations west of the LA/MS border and to the east of Apalachicola, FL are in the clear as far as direct hit.
The wind field of Ivan is large and Tropical Storm force winds extend out over 150 miles.
The worst conditions will be near and to the right of where the center crosses the coast. Depending on intensity at landfall storm surge could be on the order of 15 feet near and to the right of landfall.
Residents between Biloxi, MS and Ft. Walton Beach need to begin preparations.
Projected landfall would be Wednesday night/pre-dawn Thursday.
Hurricane watches will likely be posted for a portion of the Gulf Coast states by Tuesday morning or early afternoon.
THIS INFORMATION IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION.
Please refer to official statements from TPC and local weather services offices for official information. Please obey all evacuation orders as issued by local emergency service offices.